Tom Reynolds, chief executive of the Bathroom Manufacturers Association and self-confessed optimist, reveals why he believes that the bathroom sector can finally look ahead with confidence.
By nature, I’m an optimist – perhaps irritatingly upbeat, even – but recent KBB Focus columns demanded a restraint from sunny predictions. Let’s face it, the bathroom industry has been stuck nursing a particularly brutal hangover from the boom days of post-COVID home improvements and accelerated demand. A recovery has seemed persistently just over the horizon.
Back in early 2024, I quietly predicted to colleagues a mid-year pick-up. But optimism bias had me fooled: war, election turmoil, an unsettling budget, and Trump's volatile interventions repeatedly snuffed out early flickers of recovery. Now, tentatively – but with more confidence – I feel able to say that 2025 will be the year the UK bathroom industry genuinely rebounds.
Why such renewed cheer? At the BMA, we gather real-time sales data each month. February delivered encouraging news: daily sales climbed a solid 12% over January, and crucially, 2% year-on-year. True, this won't send champagne corks flying, but it marks the first positive variance since December 2023. Early indicators for March, informed by conversations with manufacturers, promise similarly positive trends – potentially heralding our first 2-month growth spurt since 2022.
Even the notoriously cautious forecasters at the Construction Products Association – who, despite being a genuinely charming bunch, rarely miss a chance to dampen my spirits – are now predicting steady growth in construction output this year, set to double by 2026. For our sector, it’s particularly heartening that this revival comes from increased new-build housing and, significantly, private sector repair, maintenance, and improvement work, bolstered by rising real wages and a gentle easing of interest rates. Sentiment remains mixed, but with fundamentals quietly improving, optimism seems justified.
Of course, Trump's tariffs and his Vice-President’s diplomatic brinkmanship keep geopolitical anxiety simmering. Yet, against this backdrop, the UK suddenly feels politically steady – an oasis of stability for the first time in a decade. Starmer’s commanding parliamentary majority, unlike Macron’s fading presidency, puts Britain alongside France in decisively leading Europe's defence against Russian threats and American detachment. Economically, that strength translates into greater negotiating power globally.
Chancellor Reeves’ steadfast adherence to fiscal discipline, despite political storms, also offers investors something precious: certainty. Although business grumbles rightly persist over NI hikes and the loss of business property relief, 2 business-bating blunders in the mind of the author, the market clarity Reeves provides could attract capital, buoying sterling and domestic confidence.
I’m prepared to call it: 2025 looks genuinely promising. It’s finally safe to smile again.
