Daphne Doody-Green: Turning consumer caution into opportunity

Daphne Doody-Green, chief executive of the Bathroom Association, says the bathroom sector must stay positive, but clear-eyed, as fragile consumer confidence, travel disruption and Middle East volatility reshape household spending decisions.

Having written only a few months ago about the importance of consumer confidence, I had hoped that by May we might be talking about a steadier path forward. In some ways, we are. The bathroom sector is still seeing signs of life, customers are still planning projects, and there remains a strong underlying desire among homeowners to improve the spaces they use every day.

But confidence is a delicate thing. It can take months to rebuild and only a few headlines to unsettle.

Recent consumer confidence figures suggest households are still thinking carefully before committing to major purchases. That does not mean they have stopped spending altogether, but it does mean they are weighing up every decision with more caution. A new bathroom is rarely an impulse buy. It is a considered investment, often planned around savings, borrowing, installation schedules and the disruption of having work done at home.

What feels different now is the way several pressures are colliding at once. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is fuelling concerns about oil prices, fuel supply, inflation, and global logistics. At the same time, headlines about airlines cancelling or consolidating flights due to concerns about jet fuel supply may cause some households to rethink overseas travel plans.

We should be careful not to overstate this. A cancelled flight does not automatically become a bathroom sale. But psychology is important. If foreign holidays begin to feel more expensive, less reliable or simply more stressful, some consumers may choose a UK break instead, delay travel altogether, or redirect part of that budget into their home.

That creates an opportunity for bathroom retailers, but only if we approach it in the right way. Consumers are unlikely to respond well to pressure. They will respond to reassurance: clear pricing, realistic timescales, honest conversations about product availability, and messaging that frames the bathroom not only as a luxury but as a lasting improvement to daily life.

At the same time, we must be honest about the pressures sitting behind the showroom. The Bathroom Association recently asked members how the Middle East conflict is affecting their businesses. Responses varied, from those reporting no direct impact yet to others describing critical force majeure situations, but the shared theme was clear: costs are rising, and volatility is increasing.

Energy remains a major concern. Bathroom manufacturing is energy-intensive, and members are seeing double-digit percentage increases in energy costs. Rising oil prices are also feeding directly into petrochemical-based materials used in products such as toilet seats, polymers and blends.

Raw materials are under pressure too. Members reported sharp increases in polymers and plastics, with metals such as copper, aluminium, silver, and stainless steel also rising.

For retailers, this is where communication becomes critical. Manufacturers will not raise prices because they want to; they are managing energy, materials, transport, regulation and uncertainty all at once. If those pressures are not understood further down the chain, they risk becoming a simple price conversation with the consumer.

There is another issue on the horizon too: Extended Producer Responsibility for packaging. Members are concerned about potential liabilities, with some medium-sized businesses estimating exposure of £70,000 to £80,000. That is a significant hit to margins if businesses are expected to absorb it alongside already rising production costs.

So, where does this leave bathroom retail as we head into the summer?

It leaves us in a market that is cautious, but not closed. Consumers are nervous, but not absent. The desire to improve the home remains strong, and if overseas travel becomes more complicated or expensive, there may be a renewed opportunity to position home improvement as a practical and rewarding alternative.

As I said in March, optimism is the right approach, but it has to be practical. The winners in the months ahead will be those who understand the consumer mood, explain value clearly, and help households feel confident enough to make the decision they were already considering.